A definitive new report from Portland State University’s Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice has challenged widely held beliefs regarding the causes of rising crime and drug-related deaths in Oregon. The comprehensive study, spanning the years from 2008 to 2024, found scant evidence to support claims that the state’s groundbreaking drug decriminalization policy, Measure 110 – which passed in November 2020 – was the primary force behind these concerning trends. Instead, researchers point to the profound societal disruptions wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic and the devastating emergence of illicit fentanyl as the dominant factors. This pivotal News comes as the state continues to grapple with complex public health and safety challenges.
The final report, a collaborative effort created in partnership with the National Institute of Justice, meticulously examined the impacts of major drug policy changes on crime statistics and the escalating numbers of drug-related fatalities across Oregon. For years, critics of Measure 110 have frequently linked the policy, which reclassified misdemeanor drug possession charges to a violation punishable by a $100 fine, directly to the perceived increase in criminal activity and overdose deaths. However, the PSU study offers a robust counter-narrative, suggesting that such conclusions overlook deeper, more pervasive societal shifts.
Unraveling the True Drivers: Pandemic and Fentanyl
At the heart of the study’s findings is the powerful assertion that the global COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered the landscape of public health and safety in unprecedented ways. The pandemic led to widespread economic instability, social isolation, mental health crises, and disruptions to essential services, all of which are known to contribute to rises in crime and substance use. Lockdowns, job losses, and a general breakdown of community support systems created fertile ground for an increase in various forms of social malaise, including drug addiction and associated criminal behavior.
Simultaneously, the report identifies the rapid and pervasive emergence of fentanyl as a critical turning point in the trajectory of overdose deaths. This synthetic opioid, exponentially more potent than heroin, flooded drug markets during the period studied, tragically escalating the risk of fatal overdoses. The researchers underscored that fentanyl’s widespread availability and lethality fundamentally changed the dynamics of the opioid crisis, independently driving up fatalities regardless of decriminalization efforts. Its impact was felt deeply across both urban and rural communities throughout the metropolitan areas of Oregon, exacerbating an already challenging situation.
Overdose Trends Predating Policy Change
One of the most compelling points presented by the Portland State University researchers is the revelation that the increase in overdose deaths in Oregon was not a post-Measure 110 phenomenon. The study explicitly noted that overdose deaths were already on an upward trend before Oregon even enacted its drug decriminalization policy. This crucial detail challenges the direct causal link often drawn between Measure 110 and the subsequent rise in fatalities. It suggests that the state was already experiencing a worsening drug crisis, exacerbated by evolving drug markets and underlying social determinants of health, long before the policy was implemented in November 2020.
This pre-existing upward trend implies that factors beyond the scope of decriminalization were at play, laying the groundwork for the tragic increases observed. The policy, while significant in its intent to shift from criminalization to a public health approach, appears to have been introduced into an environment already struggling with a burgeoning crisis, rather than being the catalyst for it.
Reclassifying Misdemeanor Possession: A Nuance
Measure 110 was designed to fundamentally alter how the state addressed drug possession. Prior to its passage, possessing small amounts of controlled substances was a misdemeanor offense, often leading to arrests, court appearances, and criminal records. The policy’s reclassification of these charges to a mere violation, punishable by a $100 fine (which could be waived if the individual sought a health assessment), represented a significant paradigm shift. The intent was to divert individuals from the criminal justice system into treatment and support services, thereby reducing the collateral consequences of drug addiction and addressing it as a public health issue rather than solely a criminal one.
The PSU study’s findings suggest that while this reclassification was a monumental policy change, its direct impact on the overall crime rate and the sheer volume of overdose deaths was less pronounced than the broader, more catastrophic influences of a global pandemic and a deadly new drug supply. It reinforces the idea that complex societal issues rarely have single causes or simple solutions.
Implications for Future Policy and Public Understanding
This final report from the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Portland State University provides essential data for ongoing discussions about drug policy, public health, and criminal justice reform in Oregon. By carefully analyzing patterns between 2008 and 2024, the researchers have offered a more nuanced understanding of the forces at play in the recent rise of crime and overdose deaths.
The study’s conclusions urge policymakers and the public alike to consider the multifaceted nature of these challenges, emphasizing the need to focus resources on combating the true drivers identified: the lingering effects of the pandemic’s disruptions and the relentless spread of potent substances like fentanyl. For the state of Oregon, this research provides a critical, evidence-based foundation for informed decision-making, moving beyond often-simplified narratives to address the complex realities facing its communities.
