A significant and potentially trending development in global climate efforts has emerged from China, the world’s largest carbon emitter. A study released today reveals that China’s carbon emissions experienced a 1% decrease in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in the previous year. This marks a continuation of a downward trend that began in March 2024, signaling a pivotal moment in the nation’s ambitious journey toward its 2060 carbon neutrality goal.
The findings, primarily from an analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), indicate that China could achieve its peak carbon emissions significantly ahead of its stated government target of before 2030. Myllyvirta highlighted that for China to reach its declared goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, emissions would still need to fall by an average of 3% annually over the next 35 years, underscoring the long road ahead despite this encouraging news.
The Driving Force: Clean Energy Dominance
The most prominent factor behind this decline is China’s unprecedented acceleration in clean energy deployment. Record additions of wind turbines and solar panels have outpaced the country’s growing electricity demand, directly leading to a reduction in thermal power generation. In the first half of 2025, the power sector alone saw its emissions fall by approximately 3%. This was achieved as coal use in the power industry decreased by 3.4%, while gas use increased by 6%.
China’s commitment to renewables is evident in its staggering solar capacity additions. In the first six months of this year, China installed an astounding 212 gigawatts of solar capacity, a figure that surpasses the entire capacity of the United States as of the end of 2024. This rapid build-out demonstrates that for the first time, growth in clean power generation is consistently exceeding both current and long-term average electricity demand, actively displacing fossil fuel usage rather than merely supplementing it.
Beyond Power: Industrial Shifts and Economic Impact
While the power sector leads the charge, other heavy industries have also contributed to the overall emission reduction. A prolonged downturn in China’s property sector has had a ripple effect, curtailing output and subsequently lowering emissions from crucial sectors such as cement and steel. This economic shift, coupled with the clean energy boom, presents a multifaceted approach to decarbonization.
However, the path is not without its complexities. Myllyvirta noted that while steel emissions saw a drop, it could have been larger if costlier-but-more-efficient electric arc furnaces were prioritized over cheaper, coal-based production. Furthermore, a burgeoning chemicals sector, particularly those plants converting coal into synthetic liquid and gas fuels or building blocks for plastics, is emerging as a new and significant source of heat-trapping gases. Coal use in this sector surged by 20% in the first half of 2025, building on a 10% increase in 2024, partially offsetting gains elsewhere.
Policy Momentum and Future Outlook
Beijing’s policy landscape continues to evolve in support of its dual-carbon objectives. A new pricing policy for renewables spurred a surge of installations in the first five months of 2025, ahead of a June 1 rule change. Even with an anticipated slowdown in installations post-change, the substantial boost in clean energy capacity is expected to sustain the downward trend in power sector emissions into 2026.
Moreover, China is actively expanding its national carbon trading system, aiming to bring more industries, including steel, aluminum, and cement, under its regulatory ambit. This move, combined with strengthened emissions-tracking capabilities, seeks to drive greater compliance and lower emissions growth across a broader spectrum of the economy. The country’s upcoming 15th five-year plan (2026-2030) and responses to economic headwinds will significantly shape the longer-term trajectory of emissions.
A Global Climate Barometer
This recent decline in China’s carbon emissions holds immense global significance. As the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, responsible for approximately a third of global emissions, China’s progress or setbacks directly impact international efforts to combat climate change. The current trend suggests that economic growth and significant emission reductions can occur concurrently, offering a rare beacon of hope in the fight against a warming planet.
While cautious optimism prevails, the journey towards carbon neutrality by 2060 remains a monumental undertaking. The current 1% reduction is a vital first step, but accelerating this decline to the necessary 3% average will require sustained political will, continued technological innovation, and a systemic overhaul of carbon-intensive industries. China’s efforts will undoubtedly remain a critical focus for climate observers worldwide.
